A poor harvest, a closed corridor and a funding gap: three things turning a bad year into an emergency

Three separate problems have arrived at the same time, and the combination is worse than the sum. Rainfall across the main growing belt came in 22 percent below the ten-year average. The principal road corridor for humanitarian convoys has been closed since April. And the regional appeal is 38 percent funded with ten weeks of the lean season to go.

Aid agencies estimate 4.1 million people face crisis-level food insecurity this season, roughly a third more than last year. The estimate comes from a joint assessment that agencies use precisely because it is conservative.

Not a shortage of food

The distinction that field staff keep making is that regional food stocks exist. Grain is available in surplus zones a few hundred kilometres away and prices there have risen only modestly.

What has failed is movement. With the corridor closed, convoys are routed along a secondary track that adds nine days and cannot carry the same loads. Trucking costs on that route have roughly tripled, which means the same money moves a third of the food.

People ask us how much food we need. The honest answer this year is that we need a road.— A logistics coordinator with an aid agency working in the region

What the funding gap buys

The 38 percent funding level has forced agencies into triage. Two have suspended general distributions in favor of targeted support for households with children under five and pregnant women. A third has halved rations to extend coverage.

• People at crisis-level food insecurity: about 4.1 million this season
• Rainfall: 22% below the ten-year average across the main growing belt
• Corridor: closed since April; the alternative route adds nine days
• Appeal: 38% funded with ten weeks of the lean season remaining

Nutrition data lags the situation on the ground by six to eight weeks, which is why agencies are asking donors to fund against the harvest forecast rather than the admission figures. Every previous year in which they made that argument, the money arrived after the figures did.