The policy statement kept the target range unchanged but removed the phrase describing further tightening as “likely.” Two-year yields fell nine basis points within a minute of the release.
Negotiators worked through two nights on market access and left without a text. The sticking point, according to three delegations, is a dispute-settlement provision that neither side can concede without a domestic fight.
The headline rate applies to a narrower slice of imports than the announcement suggested. For most households the effect arrives slowly, through categories where a single supplier dominates.
Payroll growth has slowed to about 84,000 a month. Underneath the headline, hiring has narrowed to three sectors and the quit rate has fallen to a level last seen a decade ago.
Single-family permits are running well ahead of starts, a gap that has widened for five months. Builders say the constraint is buyer traffic, not financing or labor.
Insurers have reclassified a stretch of water used by roughly a tenth of container traffic. Carriers are paying the premium rather than rerouting, because the alternative costs more.