The updated outlook calls for 17 to 21 named storms. Emergency managers say the figure that should drive planning is landfall probability along a given stretch of coast, which the seasonal outlook does not provide.
Afternoon highs will reach 112°F in the desert valleys. Health officials say the greater risk is that overnight lows stay above 85, giving the body no chance to recover.
Reductions of 18% to 23% will apply to three states next year. About 78% of the water in the system goes to irrigation, which is where any meaningful cut has to come from.
Average tornado warning lead time is now about 17 minutes. Research on what people do in those minutes finds most spend the first several seeking a second confirmation.
Forecasters put the odds at about 62%. In weak events, the classic pattern shows up less than half the time, which makes the seasonal outlook considerably less useful than the label suggests.
Aug 18
The MNC Morning Brief
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