The updated outlook calls for 17 to 21 named storms. Emergency managers say the figure that should drive planning is landfall probability along a given stretch of coast, which the seasonal outlook does not provide.
Aid agencies say 4.1 million people face crisis-level food insecurity in the region this season, and that the shortfall is less about food availability than about the roads it cannot travel.
Reductions of 18% to 23% will apply to three states next year. About 78% of the water in the system goes to irrigation, which is where any meaningful cut has to come from.
Thirty years of measurements from one of the longest-running Arctic monitoring sites will continue two kilometres away, on bedrock. Relocating it means a gap in a record that has no substitute.
Forecasters put the odds at about 62%. In weak events, the classic pattern shows up less than half the time, which makes the seasonal outlook considerably less useful than the label suggests.